Politics
Democrats take the House in the midterms?
83%
Resolves 2026-11-03 · Certified election results
Crowd money · Polymarket + Kalshi · beta
What the money says
Live odds from the two prediction markets that matter, harmonized into one number per question — and checked against what the crowd is actually saying.
As of Aug 4, 10:01 UTC · updated manually during beta
Browse all topics →Politics
Politics
Republicans keep the Senate in the midterms?
54%
Resolves 2026-11-03 · Certified election results
Politics
Epstein client list released by…
Oct 31
32%
Polymarket $3.2M · one market per rung
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Official release (per market rules)
Politics
Next French president — who leads?
Marine Le Pen
30%
Édouard Philippe
26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
14%
Gabriel Attal
4%
Polymarket $9.6M · leading outcomes, winner-take-all
Resolves 2027-05-01 · Official election results
Politics
Brazil's October election — who leads?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
65%
Flávio Bolsonaro
28%
Renan Santos
7%
Polymarket $8.7M · leading outcomes, winner-take-all
Resolves 2026-10-25 · TSE official results
Politics
Venezuela's leader at end of 2026 — who?
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
3%
No Head of State
2%
Polymarket $2.1M · leading outcomes, winner-take-all
Resolves 2026-12-31 · De facto head of state (per market rules)
Politics
New Supreme Court justice confirmed in 2026?
13%
KALSHI ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Senate confirmation vote
Politics
President impeached before 2027?
4%
KALSHI ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2026-12-31 · House impeachment vote
Macro
Macro
Fed hikes rates at the September meeting?
56%
HARMONIZED
The venues price the Fed's action in buckets; the hike buckets are summed to P(hike).
Resolves 2026-09-16 · FOMC statement
Macro
Fed hikes rates at the October meeting?
25%
HARMONIZEDPOLYMARKET ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
The venues price the Fed's action in buckets; the hike buckets are summed to P(hike). December's pair failed the volume floor on Polymarket ($12k) and is not listed.
Resolves 2026-10-28 · FOMC statement
Macro
Fed hikes rates at any point in 2026?
68%
POLYMARKET ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2026-12-09 · FOMC statements
Macro
US recession declared in 2026?
7%
KALSHI ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Both legs resolve on an NBER recession declaration — but verify exact windows before trusting the blend.
Resolves 2026-12-31 · NBER declaration
AI
AI
GPT-6 released by…
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Official OpenAI release
AI
Best AI model at end of August — who leads?
Anthropic
94%
Company A
50%
Company B
50%
Company C
50%
Polymarket $796K · leading outcomes, winner-take-all
Resolves 2026-08-31 · LMArena leaderboard (per market rules)
AI
Best AI model at end of 2026 — who leads?
Resolves 2026-12-31 · LMArena leaderboard (per market rules)
AI
OpenAI IPOs before Anthropic?
18%
KALSHI ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2027-12-31 · First S-1 / listing (per market rules)
Geopolitics
Geopolitics
Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31?
34%
POLYMARKET ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Signed ceasefire agreement (per market rules)
Geopolitics
US invades Iran before 2027?
22%
POLYMARKET ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2026-12-31 · US ground operation (per market rules)
Geopolitics
Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by Dec 31?
57%
POLYMARKET ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Shipping traffic data (per market rules)
Geopolitics
US–Iran nuclear deal by…
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Signed final agreement (per market rules)
Geopolitics
Iran's leader at end of 2026 — who?
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
No Head of State
3%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
3%
Polymarket $16.4M · leading outcomes, winner-take-all
Resolves 2026-12-31 · De facto Supreme Leader (per market rules)
Geopolitics
Putin out as President of Russia before 2027?
8%
POLYMARKET ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2026-12-31 · De facto loss of office (per market rules)
Crypto
Crypto
Bitcoin hits… before 2027
$100k
11%
$110k
7%
$120k
5%
$130k
4%
$140k
4%
$150k
3%
Polymarket $7.2M · Kalshi $4.2M · one market per rung · rungs merged where thresholds align
Type-2 pair: Polymarket prices 'hits $X in 2026', Kalshi prices 'year max ≥ $X' — the same event. Rungs merge where thresholds align exactly.
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Exchange price prints (per market rules)
Crypto
Ethereum hits… before 2027
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Exchange price prints (per market rules)
Crypto
Crypto market-structure bill signed in 2026?
27%
POLYMARKET ONLY — NO CROSS-CHECK
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Presidential signature
Culture
Culture
New Stranger Things episode released by…
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Netflix release
Culture
Highest-grossing movie of 2026 — which?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
92%
Avengers: Doomsday
8%
Polymarket $2.5M · leading outcomes, winner-take-all
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Worldwide box office (per market rules)
Culture
US confirms aliens exist by…
Resolves 2026-12-31 · Official US government confirmation
How the one number works. The headline is a volume-weighted blend of the two venues. Only contracts with identical resolution terms are merged; structural twins (like the Fed's action buckets) are translated and labeled HARMONIZED; everything else stays separate. Markets under $100K volume are excluded. Odds are market prices, not Echo forecasts, and not investment advice.
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